Among my favorite films is is a historical drama with the short title “No“, directed by Pablo Larraín. It takes place in Chile in 1988. The dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet has ruled for 15 years. The regime has tortured or “disappeared” thousands of actual or imagined opponents. Eventually, under international pressure, Pinochet offers a referundum in which Chileans can vote “yes” or “no” on an 8-year extension of his rule. Having governed by fear, he is confident he will win, and allows each side television time to make their case prior to the vote. The film’s central character, played by Mexican actor Gael García Bernal, is an advertising executive persuaded by champions of the “No” side to craft their television content. His team composes a clever, infectiously feel-good music video whose theme is “Chile: Happiness is Coming“. It contrasts with the grey dystopianism of the dictator’s “Yes” ads, adeptly encouraging citizens to ignore their fear and vote “No” to Pinochet’s continued rule. When the “No” side wins, Pinochet considers the usual authoritarian response (declare a false victory). But his cabinet, demoralized and tired of the sour, aging autocrat, forces him to relinquish power.
Hmmm this is not a fun team…
Indeed autocratic regimes are at their most vulnerable when the strongman’s inner circle loses its enthusiasm. It took 15 years for the Pinochet regime to collapse. Mr. Trump’s political downfall is likely to happen faster, as key elements of his own coalition are already dispirited. Consider former Republican Senator Marco Rubio, previously a pro-Ukraine internationalist. Three months ago, he got his dream job as Secretary of State – but since then, how happy is he about the policies he is forced to praise? (See photo). And those pro-deregulation businesspeople dreaming of a golden age of American economic prowess – how is their mood these days? Just ask the Wall Street Journal, remarkably pro-Trump in its editorial stance for 8 years – until the past few weeks.
So let’s join a happier one
Of course, Mr. Trump hasn’t perpetrated anything like the degree of horror experienced by Chile under General Pinochet, and he operates with more restraint on his power. Yet their governing styles comes from the same playbook: Inspire hatred and division. Pose as the only force that can counter the carnage, terror, and criminality that would otherwise run wild.
The story of Chile’s return to democracy in the late 1980’s, in the setting of an actual dictatorship, offers one model for fighting authoritarianism. Monitor for signs of discontent in the ruler’s inner circle, and when it emerges, drive a big wedge into that crack. By honing a confident, joyful, and inclusive message and communicating it well on popular media. Forget dire warnings about impending catastrophe – an actual or wannabe dictator will always win the game of “who can be most grim”. Imagine a “No to Trump” campaign with the theme: America, happiness is coming.
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